Rugby Park · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kilmarnock and 1.35 for Motherwell, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Motherwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kilmarnock home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Motherwell away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.4% vs market 42.1%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.1% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.65 | 57.4% | 58.6% | 1.71 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.5% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 41.6% | 41.3% | 2.42 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.7% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.9% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kilmarnock
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 0-1 (L)
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-4 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-3 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 2-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-05-14T18:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-3 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 2-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-01-08T19:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-12-20T19:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-1 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-1 Motherwell (League Cup)
- 2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-1 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2023-11-04T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.