Estadio Jose Antonio Valle · Analysis updated 09:18 UTC
Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Guillermo Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.54 for Guillermo Brown, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Kimberley Mar del Plata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kimberley Mar del Plata win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kimberley Mar del Plata home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guillermo Brown away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kimberley Mar del Plata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 29% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.54 for Guillermo Brown, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.7%
- 0–015.8%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–18.5%
Recent form
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Guillermo Brown
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kimberley Mar del Plata win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.