Estadio Jose Antonio Valle · Analysis updated 12:20 UTC
Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.48 for Huracan Las Heras, a combined total of 1.42. That distribution gives Kimberley Mar del Plata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kimberley Mar del Plata win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kimberley Mar del Plata home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan Las Heras away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kimberley Mar del Plata to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 36% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.48 for Huracan Las Heras, a combined 1.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–024.3%
- 1–022.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.7%
Recent form
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Huracan Las Heras
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kimberley Mar del Plata win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.