The Walks Stadium · Analysis updated 11:41 UTC
King's Lynn Town vs Chorley Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for King's Lynn Town and 1.03 for Chorley, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives King's Lynn Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
King's Lynn Town home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chorley away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 52.0% vs market 40.6%, edge +11.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 52.0% | 1.92 | +11.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.8% | 1.37 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 27.2% | 3.68 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.0% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 48.0% | 2.08 | -11.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
King's Lynn Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chorley · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hednesford Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Darlington 1883 · 2-0 (W)
Chorley
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barton Town Old Boys · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs King's Lynn Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 2-0 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 1-1 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2025-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 0-4 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2025-04-29T18:45:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 0-1 Chorley (National League - North - Play-offs)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 0-0 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 1-2 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2024-04-09T18:45:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 1-0 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 1-3 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2023-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 1-0 Chorley (National League - North)
- 2022-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · King's Lynn Town 2-0 Chorley (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.