Lightwood Park · Analysis updated 11:36 UTC
Kingborough Lions vs Launceston United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Kingborough Lions and 0.85 for Launceston United, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Kingborough Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kingborough Lions win
72.9% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kingborough Lions home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Launceston United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Kingborough Lions
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:45:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Devonport City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Clarence Zebras · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Launceston United · 2-0 (W)
Launceston United
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Glenorchy Knights · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Kingborough Lions · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-07-22T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Launceston City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · A vs South East Utd. · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-0 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2026-05-09T06:45:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 7-1 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-08-30T02:15:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-0 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-07-12T06:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 0-4 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-05-03T02:15:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-1 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-09-07T04:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 6-1 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-07-13T06:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 6-0 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-05-11T06:45:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 5-0 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2023-09-09T04:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 8-4 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
- 2023-07-15T05:45:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 6-1 Launceston United (Tasmania NPL)
Tasmania NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kingborough Lions win, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.