Lightwood Park · Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Kingborough Lions and 2.25 for South Hobart, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Kingborough Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kingborough Lions home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kingborough Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 19% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Kingborough Lions and 2.25 for South Hobart, a combined 4.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–35.2%
Recent form
Kingborough Lions
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · A vs South Hobart · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:45:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Devonport City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Clarence Zebras · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Launceston United · 2-0 (W)
South Hobart
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingborough Lions · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Devonport City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Riverside · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Launceston City · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-4 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2026-06-21T03:15:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-1 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2026-03-21T02:15:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-5 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-07-26T04:00:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-4 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-05-24T04:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-3 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2025-03-15T03:00:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-4 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-07-27T08:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-4 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-05-25T04:00:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 3-3 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2024-03-16T07:30:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 1-3 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
- 2023-07-30T04:00:00.000Z · Kingborough Lions 2-1 South Hobart (Tasmania NPL)
Tasmania NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.