Kiryat Yam SC vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kiryat Yam SC and 1.58 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Maccabi Petah Tikva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kiryat Yam SC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maccabi Petah Tikva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Kiryat Yam SC and 1.58 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kiryat Yam SC win31%

Draw25%

Maccabi Petah Tikva win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–29.1%
0–19.1%
2–17.4%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Kiryat Yam SC

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Herzliya · 3-1 (W)

Maccabi Petah Tikva

2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Kiryat Yam SC 0-0 Maccabi Petah Tikva (Liga Leumit)
2026-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · Kiryat Yam SC 2-2 Maccabi Petah Tikva (Liga Leumit)
2025-11-28T13:00:00.000Z · Kiryat Yam SC 2-3 Maccabi Petah Tikva (Liga Leumit)

Liga Leumit table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ashdod	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	8	3	0	17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	6	1	4	8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	5	2	4	6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	4	1	6	1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	4	0	7	-7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	2	5	4	-2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	2	3	6	-5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	3	0	8	-14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	0	1	10	-28	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.