Varkert Stadium · Referee M. Zimmermann · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Kisvarda FC vs Debreceni VSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.17 for Debreceni VSC, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Kisvarda FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kisvarda FC win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kisvarda FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Debreceni VSC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kisvarda FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.17 for Debreceni VSC, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Kisvarda FC
- 2026-10-10T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Vasas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Paks · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagykozar KSE · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-1 (D)
Debreceni VSC
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paks · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kisvarda FC win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.