Varkert Stadium · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.79 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Ferencvarosi TC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ferencvarosi TC win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kisvarda FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferencvarosi TC away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferencvarosi TC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.79 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 48.6% vs market 40.6%, edge +8.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 48.6% | 2.06 | +8.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.25 | 42.1% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.62 | 56.9% | 56.9% | 1.76 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 51.4% | 1.95 | -8.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kisvarda FC
- 2026-10-10T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Vasas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Paks · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagykozar KSE · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-1 (D)
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ferencvarosi TC win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.