Kisvárda II vs FC Hatvan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Kisvárda II and 1.14 for FC Hatvan, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Kisvárda II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kisvárda II win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kisvárda II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Hatvan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kisvárda II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Kisvárda II and 1.14 for FC Hatvan, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kisvárda II win61%

Draw20%

FC Hatvan win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.0%
2–08.6%
1–07.8%
3–17.1%

Recent form

Kisvárda II

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarpa · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cigand SE · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszaújváros · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-3 (L)

FC Hatvan

2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mezőcsát · 5-3 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Putnok VSE · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eger · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	13	11	0	2	31	33
2	Cigand SE	13	10	2	1	25	32
3	DEAC	13	8	2	3	14	26
4	Debrecen II	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Gödöllő	13	7	1	5	8	22
6	Kisvárda II	13	5	6	2	6	21
7	Mátészalka	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Diósgyőr II	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Tiszaújváros	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Füzesabony	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Eger	13	5	2	6	-12	17
12	Salgótarjáni BTC	13	4	0	9	-11	12
13	Tiszafuredi VSE	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	Hajdúnánás	12	3	1	8	-18	10
15	Tarpa	13	3	0	10	-20	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kisvárda II win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.