Kitakyushu vs Gainare Tottori Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 0.95 for Gainare Tottori, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Kitakyushu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kitakyushu win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kitakyushu home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitakyushu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Kitakyushu and 0.95 for Gainare Tottori, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Kitakyushu win45%

Draw28%

Gainare Tottori win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.6%
1–112.9%
0–010.3%
0–19.8%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Kitakyushu

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Fukushima United · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nara Club · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)

Gainare Tottori

2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Roasso Kumamoto · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Gifu · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	11	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	11	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	10	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	8	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	2	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	11	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	7	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Fukushima United	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Biwako Shiga	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	4	1	8	-10	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kitakyushu win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.