Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu · Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
Kitakyushu vs Iwaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 1.33 for Iwaki, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Kitakyushu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitakyushu home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iwaki away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitakyushu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Kitakyushu and 1.33 for Iwaki, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Kitakyushu
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-0 (W)
Iwaki
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.