Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 1.15 for Matsumoto Yamaga, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kitakyushu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kitakyushu home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitakyushu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Kitakyushu and 1.15 for Matsumoto Yamaga, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Kitakyushu win41%

Draw27%

Matsumoto Yamaga win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.1%
0–19.4%
2–18.6%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Kitakyushu

2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-0 (W)

Matsumoto Yamaga

2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	12	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	13	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	8	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	12	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	7	21
7	Osaka	12	5	5	2	9	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	7	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	4	2	6	-3	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	-4	13
16	Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	-5	13
17	Fukushima United	12	3	2	7	-5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	3	1	8	-11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	-23	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.