Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu · Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
Kitakyushu vs Okinawa SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 1.10 for Okinawa SV, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Kitakyushu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kitakyushu win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitakyushu home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Okinawa SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitakyushu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Kitakyushu and 1.10 for Okinawa SV, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Kitakyushu
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Fukushima United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nara Club · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)
Okinawa SV
- 2026-08-26T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-01-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-11-23T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Veertien Mie · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-11-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs TIAMO Hirakata · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · Kitakyushu 1-2 Okinawa SV (Emperor Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kitakyushu win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.