Kitakyushu vs Osaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 1.85 for Osaka, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Osaka win

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.77 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kitakyushu home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osaka away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Kitakyushu and 1.85 for Osaka, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kitakyushu win15%

Draw22%

Osaka win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.4%
0–212.4%
1–110.4%
1–29.6%
0–37.6%

Recent form

Kitakyushu

2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-0 (W)

Osaka

2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fukushima United · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	10	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	12	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	9	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	6	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	8	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	11	19
7	Osaka	11	4	5	2	7	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	4	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	1	17
10	Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Biwako Shiga	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	-7	14
14	Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	-4	13
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	-5	10
17	Thespakusatsu Gunma	11	3	1	7	-9	10
18	Fukushima United	11	2	2	7	-6	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	-11	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	-21	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Osaka win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.