Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu · Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kitakyushu and 1.46 for Parceiro Nagano, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Kitakyushu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitakyushu home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitakyushu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Kitakyushu and 1.46 for Parceiro Nagano, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Kitakyushu
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-0 (W)
Parceiro Nagano
- 2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Nara Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Fukushima United · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.