· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Kitara vs Al Ahly Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kitara and 1.33 for Al Ahly, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Al Ahly the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitara home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahly away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahly to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Kitara and 1.33 for Al Ahly, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Kitara
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kigezi HomeBoyz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Express · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mogadishu City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogadishu City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 1-1 (D)
Al Ahly
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Masr · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.