· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Kitzbühel vs Lauterach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Kitzbühel and 1.33 for Lauterach, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Kitzbühel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kitzbühel win
67.6% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitzbühel home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lauterach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitzbühel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Kitzbühel and 1.33 for Lauterach, a combined 4.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.3%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
Kitzbühel
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaz · 1-3 (L)
Lauterach
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SVG Reichenau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dornbirn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rheindorf Altach II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Imst | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Schwaz | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Swarovski Tirol II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | SK St. Johann | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Röthis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Lochau | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kitzbühel win, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.