Sportplatz Langau · Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Kitzbühel vs TSV St. Johann Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Kitzbühel and 1.22 for TSV St. Johann, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Kitzbühel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kitzbühel win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kitzbühel home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV St. Johann away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kitzbühel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Kitzbühel and 1.22 for TSV St. Johann, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Kitzbühel
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hohenems · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwaz · 1-3 (L)
TSV St. Johann
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imst | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Schwaz | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Hohenems | 13 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 30 |
| 4 | Kitzbühel | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Dornbirn | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Röthis | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 8 | SK St. Johann | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Lauterach | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | SVG Reichenau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Lochau | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 14 | Rheindorf Altach II | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 15 | Lustenau | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -21 | 7 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kitzbühel win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.