Kigali Pele Stadium · Analysis updated 17:35 UTC
Kiyovu Sports vs Bugesera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Kiyovu Sports and 0.77 for Bugesera, a combined total of 1.27. That distribution gives Bugesera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.5% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kiyovu Sports home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bugesera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–028.1%
- 0–121.7%
- 1–014.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Kiyovu Sports
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marines · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
Bugesera
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kiyovu Sports · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rutsiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 1-2 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2025-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 0-0 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2025-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 0-5 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 1-2 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2024-01-26T16:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 2-2 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2023-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 0-4 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2023-02-25T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 1-0 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2022-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 3-1 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2022-05-08T10:30:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 0-0 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
- 2021-12-29T13:00:00.000Z · Kiyovu Sports 1-1 Bugesera (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.