· Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Kluczbork vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kluczbork and 1.28 for Carina Gubin, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Kluczbork the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kluczbork win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kluczbork home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carina Gubin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Kluczbork
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
Carina Gubin
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-1 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-2 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 0-1 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-3 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2024-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-2 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-09-23T10:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-1 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 0-2 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-08-13T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-1 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-11-20T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 2-0 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-1 Carina Gubin (III Liga - Group 3)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | ROW Rybnik | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Barycz Sułów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Kluczbork | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Miedź Legnica II | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Ślęza Wrocław | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Rakow II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Polonia Nysa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kluczbork win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.