Stadion Mijeski Kluczbork · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Kluczbork vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Kluczbork and 1.76 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lechia Gdansk win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kluczbork home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lechia Gdansk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Kluczbork and 1.76 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Kluczbork
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczbork · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lechia Gdansk win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.