· Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Kluczbork vs Stal Brzeg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kluczbork and 1.95 for Stal Brzeg, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Stal Brzeg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stal Brzeg win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kluczbork home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stal Brzeg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Kluczbork and 1.95 for Stal Brzeg, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Kluczbork
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-2 (L)
Stal Brzeg
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 1-0 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 2-0 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2025-01-25T12:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 3-0 Stal Brzeg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 2-0 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2023-04-01T16:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 6-2 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 4-0 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2022-03-26T14:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 0-1 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 0-3 Stal Brzeg (III Liga - Group 3)
- 2021-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · Kluczbork 5-1 Stal Brzeg (Friendlies Clubs)
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stal Brzeg win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.