Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kluczevia Stargard and 1.37 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Kluczevia Stargard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kluczevia Stargard home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Siedlce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kluczevia Stargard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Kluczevia Stargard and 1.37 for Pogoń Siedlce, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Kluczevia Stargard
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalisz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elana Toruń · 2-1 (W)
Pogoń Siedlce
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Gdansk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jastrzębie · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nieciecza · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.