Knaresborough Town AFC Ground · Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Knaresborough Town vs Workington Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Knaresborough Town and 1.60 for Workington, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Workington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Knaresborough Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Workington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Workington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Knaresborough Town and 1.60 for Workington, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Knaresborough Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bridlington Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Benfield · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunston UTS · 1-3 (L)
Workington
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.