· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Knockbreda vs Bangor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Knockbreda and 1.41 for Bangor, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Knockbreda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Knockbreda home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bangor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Knockbreda
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portstewart · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-23T17:45:05.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T17:45:35.000Z · H vs Oxford Sunnyside · 0-0 (D)
Bangor
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Linfield · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · Knockbreda 0-5 Bangor (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-08T18:15:00.000Z · Knockbreda 3-5 Bangor (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-08T18:45:00.000Z · Knockbreda 1-4 Bangor (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Knockbreda 0-5 Bangor (Championship)
- 2023-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · Knockbreda 1-4 Bangor (Championship)
- 2023-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · Knockbreda 1-5 Bangor (Championship)
- 2022-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · Knockbreda 2-0 Bangor (Championship)
- 2022-05-10T18:45:00.000Z · Knockbreda 2-2 Bangor (Championship)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.