Burgemeester Graaf Leopold Lippens Park · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Knokke vs Harelbeke Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Knokke and 0.75 for Harelbeke, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Knokke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Knokke win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Knokke home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Harelbeke away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Knokke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Knokke and 0.75 for Harelbeke, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Knokke
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Houtvenne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zelzate · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 3-2 (W)
Harelbeke
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tienen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Knokke win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.