Knokke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Knokke and 1.60 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Knokke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Knokke win

45.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Knokke home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Knokke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Knokke and 1.60 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Knokke win45%

Draw22%

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–18.7%
1–27.3%
2–27.0%
1–05.7%

Recent form

Knokke

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Houtvenne · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zelzate · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 3-2 (W)

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 4-3 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · Knokke 1-0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (First Amateur Division)
2025-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Knokke 0-0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (First Amateur Division)
2025-02-08T19:00:00.000Z · Knokke 3-3 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (First Amateur Division)
2024-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Knokke 3-1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (First Amateur Division)

First Amateur Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rochefort	10	6	2	2	12	20
2	Meux	9	6	1	2	8	19
3	RWDM	10	6	1	3	3	19
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Albert Quévy-Mons	10	5	2	3	6	17
6	Tubize	9	4	2	3	0	14
7	Standard Liège II	9	4	1	4	6	13
8	Olympic Charleroi	10	3	3	4	-9	12
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	2	4	3	-1	10
10	Onhaye	8	2	0	6	-10	6
11	Habay-la-Neuve	8	1	3	4	-5	6
12	Flénu	9	0	1	8	-17	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Knokke win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.