· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Knowle W vs Worcester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Knowle W and 1.56 for Worcester City, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Knowle W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Knowle W win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Worcester City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Knowle W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Knowle W and 1.56 for Worcester City, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Knowle W
- 2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion W · 1-7 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sleaford Town W · 7-0 (W)
- 2021-11-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Netherton United · 2-3 (L)
Worcester City
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chorley · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chorley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rushall Olympic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Knowle W win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.