Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu · Analysis updated 02:56 UTC
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 1.35 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Kocaelispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kocaelispor home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rizespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kocaelispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.35 for Rizespor, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 69.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.0% | 74.2% | 1.35 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.56 | 36.3% | 37.1% | 2.70 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.56 | 36.3% | 37.1% | 2.70 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.06 | 44.6% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.5% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.89 | 49.5% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.66 | 55.4% | 54.9% | 1.82 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.47 | 63.5% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.47 | 63.5% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 25.8% | 3.88 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.97 | 30.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kocaelispor
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanyaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Göztepe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 0-1 (L)
Rizespor
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-20T17:00:00.000Z · Kocaelispor 0-2 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Kocaelispor 1-1 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2021-07-18T00:00:00.000Z · Kocaelispor 3-2 Rizespor (Friendlies Clubs)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.