Kochi United vs Sagamihara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Kochi United and 1.97 for Sagamihara, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Sagamihara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sagamihara win

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.62 – 1.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kochi United home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sagamihara away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sagamihara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 11% / 20% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Kochi United and 1.97 for Sagamihara, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kochi United win11%

Draw20%

Sagamihara win69%

Double chance 1X

31%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–114.7%
0–214.5%
0–39.6%
1–19.2%
1–29.0%

Recent form

Kochi United

2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 0-2 (L)

Sagamihara

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kamatamare Sanuki · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	11	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	11	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	10	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	8	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	2	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	11	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	7	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Fukushima United	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Biwako Shiga	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	4	1	8	-10	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sagamihara win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.