Kochi Haruno Athletic Stadium · Analysis updated 00:41 UTC
Kochi United vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kochi United and 1.41 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives V-varen Nagasaki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kochi United home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
V-varen Nagasaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates V-varen Nagasaki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Kochi United and 1.41 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Kochi United
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 0-2 (L)
V-varen Nagasaki
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.