Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kokand-1912 and 1.39 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dinamo Samarqand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.39

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kokand-1912 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Samarqand away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Samarqand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Kokand-1912 and 1.39 for Dinamo Samarqand, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kokand-1912 win37%

Draw26%

Dinamo Samarqand win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–18.8%
1–08.7%
1–28.4%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Kokand-1912

2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mash'al · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Surkhon · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazalkent · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 1-2 (L)

Dinamo Samarqand

2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	24	17	4	3	35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	15	8	1	21	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Buxoro	24	12	4	8	5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
7	Nasaf	24	10	8	6	13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	8	5	11	-6	29
12	Surkhon	24	7	7	10	-9	28
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.