Kolín vs Kosmonosy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kolín and 2.26 for Kosmonosy, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Kosmonosy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kosmonosy win

48.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 2.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kolín home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kosmonosy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kosmonosy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Kolín and 2.26 for Kosmonosy, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kolín win31%

Draw20%

Kosmonosy win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.9%
2–27.1%
1–17.0%
2–16.3%
1–36.0%

Recent form

Kolín

2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 0-4 (L)

Kosmonosy

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Hradec Králové · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Letohrad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrudim II · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Turnov · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	11	9	2	0	18	29
2	Přepeře	11	9	0	2	23	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	8	1	2	17	25
4	Trutnov	11	7	1	3	7	22
5	Turnov	11	6	2	3	10	20
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	11	6	2	3	10	20
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	11	6	2	3	6	20
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Kolín	11	4	3	4	2	15
10	Dvůr Králové	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Hlinsko	11	4	1	6	-4	13
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	11	3	2	6	-8	11
13	Vykan	11	3	1	7	-4	10
14	Svitavy	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Letohrad	11	0	2	9	-25	2
16	Chrudim II	11	0	2	9	-31	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kosmonosy win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.