Kolín vs Spartak Police n/Metují Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Kolín and 1.76 for Spartak Police n/Metují, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Kolín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kolín home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Police n/Metují away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Kolín and 1.76 for Spartak Police n/Metují, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kolín win42%

Draw22%

Spartak Police n/Metují win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.6%
2–18.2%
1–27.6%
2–27.2%
3–15.2%

Recent form

Kolín

2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 0-4 (L)

Spartak Police n/Metují

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Letohrad · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chrudim II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosmonosy · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	12	9	3	0	18	30
2	Kosmonosy	12	9	1	2	20	28
3	Přepeře	12	9	0	3	20	27
4	Trutnov	12	8	1	3	10	25
5	Turnov	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	12	6	3	3	10	21
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	12	6	3	3	6	21
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	12	6	1	5	5	19
9	Kolín	12	4	3	5	1	15
10	Slavia Hradec Králové	12	4	2	6	-4	14
11	Dvůr Králové	12	4	2	6	-9	14
12	Hlinsko	12	4	1	7	-6	13
13	Vykan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
14	Svitavy	12	1	2	9	-20	5
15	Letohrad	12	1	2	9	-24	5
16	Chrudim II	12	0	2	10	-35	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.