Fazisi Stadium · Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Kolkheti Poti vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kolkheti Poti and 1.00 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Kolkheti Poti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kolkheti Poti win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kolkheti Poti home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aragvi Dusheti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolkheti Poti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Kolkheti Poti and 1.00 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Kolkheti Poti
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gori · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Samtredia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Martvili · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 1-1 (D)
Aragvi Dusheti
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 2 | Shturmi | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 3 | Telavi | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 7 | Odishi 1919 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 38 |
| 8 | Sioni | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Gori | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 32 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kolkheti Poti win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.