· Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Köln U19 vs Heidenheim U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Köln U19 and 1.64 for Heidenheim U19, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Köln U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Köln U19 win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Köln U19 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heidenheim U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Köln U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Köln U19 and 1.64 for Heidenheim U19, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Köln U19
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 2-1 (W)
Heidenheim U19
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München U19 · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandhausen U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulm U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Köln U19 win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.