Köln U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Köln U19 and 1.25 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Köln U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Köln U19 win

66.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Köln U19 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mainz 05 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Köln U19 win66%

Draw17%

Mainz 05 U19 win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.0%
3–17.8%
2–07.2%
1–16.9%
3–06.2%

Recent form

Köln U19

2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln U19 · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 7-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 2-1 (W)

Mainz 05 U19

2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · Köln U19 1-1 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2025-10-26T13:30:00.000Z · Köln U19 2-1 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2025-08-20T09:00:00.000Z · Köln U19 2-2 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Köln U19 0-0 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-04-09T11:00:00.000Z · Köln U19 0-1 Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Köln U19 win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.