Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka II and 1.38 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Oleksandria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

72.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kolos Kovalivka II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oleksandria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oleksandria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Kolos Kovalivka II and 1.38 for Oleksandria, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kolos Kovalivka II win28%

Draw27%

Oleksandria win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–112.5%
1–09.3%
0–09.1%
1–28.8%

Recent form

Kolos Kovalivka II

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Probiy Horodenka · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-0 (W)

Oleksandria

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Kulykiv	13	6	3	4	9	21
7	Nyva Ternopil	13	4	6	3	4	18
8	Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	4	5	4	1	17
9	Inhulets	12	5	2	5	-3	17
10	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	-3	15
12	UCSA	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	-10	13
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.