Kolos Stadium · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Kolos Kovalivka II vs SK Poltava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka II and 1.90 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives SK Poltava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SK Poltava win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kolos Kovalivka II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SK Poltava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SK Poltava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 11% / 21% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Kolos Kovalivka II and 1.90 for SK Poltava, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–214.8%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Kolos Kovalivka II
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Probiy Horodenka · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-0 (W)
SK Poltava
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metal Kharkiv · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Inhulets · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SK Poltava win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.