· Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.15 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Kolos Kovalivka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kolos Kovalivka win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kolos Kovalivka home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chornomorets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.15 for Chornomorets, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Kolos Kovalivka
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 3-2 (W)
Chornomorets
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Kharkiv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kolos Kovalivka win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.