Kolos Stadium · Referee Oleksiy Derevinskyi, Ukraine · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Kolos Kovalivka vs Karpaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.98 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Karpaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Karpaty win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kolos Kovalivka home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Karpaty away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.6%
Recent form
Kolos Kovalivka
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kryvbas KR · 2-2 (D)
Karpaty
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 2-3 Karpaty (Cup)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2026-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2025-08-16T12:30:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 1-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2025-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 2-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2024-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2020-02-29T15:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 2-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2019-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Kolos Kovalivka 2-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karpaty win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.