· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Kom Berkovitsa vs Bdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Kom Berkovitsa and 1.90 for Bdin, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Kom Berkovitsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kom Berkovitsa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bdin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kom Berkovitsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Kom Berkovitsa and 1.90 for Bdin, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Kom Berkovitsa
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bdin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 2-1 (W)
Bdin
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Troyan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Partizan | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kom Berkovitsa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Sevlievo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Bdin | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Chavdar Troyan | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Etar VT II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | OFK Levski | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Spartak Pleven II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Pavlikeni | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.