· Analysis updated 01:27 UTC
Kom Berkovitsa vs Lokomotiv Mezdra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kom Berkovitsa and 1.55 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Mezdra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kom Berkovitsa home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Mezdra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Mezdra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Kom Berkovitsa and 1.55 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Kom Berkovitsa
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bdin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 2-1 (W)
Lokomotiv Mezdra
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.