· Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Kom vs Berane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kom and 0.96 for Berane, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Kom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kom win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kom home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Berane away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 1.83 (model 53.2% vs market 49.8%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 1.83 | 49.8% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +3.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.0% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.1% | 46.8% | 2.14 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.9% | 72.8% | 1.37 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 77.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kom
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeta · 3-1 (W)
Berane
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Kom 3-4 Berane (Second League)
- 2026-03-18T12:30:00.000Z · Kom 1-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2026-02-08T12:00:00.000Z · Kom 1-2 Berane (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Kom 3-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2025-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · Kom 0-2 Berane (Second League)
- 2024-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · Kom 2-3 Berane (Second League)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Kom 2-2 Berane (Second League)
- 2023-10-29T12:30:00.000Z · Kom 2-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2023-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · Kom 2-3 Berane (Second League)
- 2023-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Kom 4-0 Berane (Cup)
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kom win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.