· Analysis updated 12:43 UTC
Kom vs Lovćen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kom and 1.21 for Lovćen, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Kom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kom win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kom home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Lovćen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Kom and 1.21 for Lovćen, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Kom
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeta · 3-1 (W)
Lovćen
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kom win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.