· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Komárno II vs Beluša Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Komárno II and 2.58 for Beluša, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Beluša the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beluša win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Komárno II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Beluša away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beluša to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 18% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Komárno II and 2.58 for Beluša, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–16.9%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
Komárno II
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs DAC II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Prievidza · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Častkovce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Gabčíkovo · 1-0 (W)
Beluša
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Veľké Ludince · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Myjava · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajská Lužná · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Piešťany · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · Komárno II 0-5 Beluša (3. liga - West)
- 2026-03-01T09:30:00.000Z · Komárno II 1-0 Beluša (3. liga - West)
- 2025-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Komárno II 1-3 Beluša (3. liga - West)
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Púchov | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Beluša | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Nové Zámky | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | DAC II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beluša win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.