Komárov vs Doubravka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Komárov and 0.94 for Doubravka, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Komárov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Komárov win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Komárov home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Doubravka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Komárov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Komárov and 0.94 for Doubravka, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Komárov win59%

Draw22%

Doubravka win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.3%
1–110.6%
2–010.6%
2–19.9%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Komárov

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rokycany · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strakonice · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pribram · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyrsko · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Doubravka · 1-0 (W)

Doubravka

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Soběslav · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hluboka nad Vltavou · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Domažlice II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petřín Plzeň · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hořovicko · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Petřín Plzeň	11	8	1	2	12	25
2	Spartak Pribram	10	7	2	1	19	23
3	Křimice	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Hluboka nad Vltavou	10	5	4	1	8	19
5	Komárov	9	5	4	0	8	19
6	Hořovicko	10	5	2	3	4	17
7	Spartak Soběslav	9	5	1	3	6	16
8	Táborsko II	10	4	4	2	5	16
9	Slavoj Český Krumlov	10	4	0	6	-6	12
10	Doubravka	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Rokycany	10	3	1	6	-9	10
12	Strakonice	9	2	1	6	-8	7
13	Jiskra Domažlice II	9	1	0	8	-13	3
14	Nyrsko	9	1	0	8	-21	3
15	Milevsko	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Komárov win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.