· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Komárov vs Milevsko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Komárov and 0.71 for Milevsko, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Komárov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Komárov win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Komárov home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milevsko away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Komárov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Komárov and 0.71 for Milevsko, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.7%
Recent form
Komárov
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rokycany · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strakonice · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pribram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyrsko · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Doubravka · 1-0 (W)
Milevsko
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Soběslav · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hluboka nad Vltavou · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jiskra Domažlice II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Petřín Plzeň · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hořovicko · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petřín Plzeň | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Křimice | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Spartak Pribram | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 4 | Hořovicko | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Spartak Soběslav | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Komárov | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Doubravka | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Strakonice | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Rokycany | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Komárov win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.