Kongahälla vs Åstorp Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kongahälla and 1.38 for Åstorp, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Kongahälla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kongahälla win

45.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kongahälla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Åstorp away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kongahälla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Kongahälla and 1.38 for Åstorp, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kongahälla win45%

Draw24%

Åstorp win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.2%
1–07.8%
1–27.4%
2–06.7%

Recent form

Kongahälla

2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Landvetter IS · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 1-3 (L)

Åstorp

2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongahälla · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	26	19	3	4	25	60
2	Dalstorps	26	15	7	4	26	52
3	Jonsered	26	12	6	8	1	42
4	Hestrafor	26	12	5	9	6	41
5	Västra Frölunda	26	11	7	8	6	40
6	Qviding FIF	26	12	4	10	3	40
7	Böljan	26	10	7	9	4	37
8	Lindome	26	11	4	11	2	37
9	Torslanda	26	9	7	10	-1	34
10	Onsala	26	9	6	11	-4	33
11	Kongahälla	26	8	6	12	-9	30
12	Åstorp	26	8	5	13	-9	29
13	Galtabacks	26	6	5	15	-10	23
14	Astrio	26	2	4	20	-40	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kongahälla win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.